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Stock markets are declining due to waning consumer optimism about the economy, fueled by increasing worries of a looming recession. According to Goldman Sachs, there is a 20% probability of a recession this year, with the concerns tied to Trump's tariffs on trade. President Donald Trump has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada in retaliation for provincial electricity duties. The National Bureau of Economic Research characterizes a recession as a substantial downturn in economic activity lasting more than a few months.