A scientific study has confirmed that climate change played a significant role in the hot, dry weather that contributed to the devastating LA fires. According to World Weather Attribution, these weather conditions were made about 35% more likely due to climate change. The authors of the study observed that the LA wildfire season is lengthening, while the usual rains that extinguish the fires are decreasing. Despite the complexity of wildfires and multiple influencing factors, scientists are confident that a warming climate is increasing LA's susceptibility to intense fire events.
Lead author Dr. Clair Barnes from Imperial College London stated, "Climate change increased the risk of the devastating LA wildfires." The researchers highlighted that drought conditions are now more commonly extending into winter, heightening the probability of fires during strong Santa Ana winds. These winds, described as strong and gusty east or north-easterly winds blowing from inland California towards the coast, have exacerbated the spread of the fires.
In early January, the fast-spreading fires claimed around 30 lives and destroyed over 10,000 homes. The study, conducted by a team from World Weather Attribution (WWA), examines the conditions conducive to dangerous wildfires. It utilizes climate models to simulate the impact of warming since the mid-19th century on extreme weather events, like heatwaves, droughts, floods, and fires.
Dr. Friederike Otto, head of World Weather Attribution, emphasized the results' robustness, indicating a tangible climate influence on extreme events. Their findings suggest that the likelihood of the hot, arid conditions fueling the LA fires occurring is now 35% higher than in an unwarmed world, based on a model that predicts this incidence once every 17 years.
While the researchers are cautious about directly linking rising temperatures to the longer fire season or decreased rainfall, they assert that climate change has unquestionably heightened the risk of such devastating wildfires. The study indicates that as long as fossil fuel consumption persists, the likelihood of catastrophic wildfires will continue to rise.
Professor Gabi Hegerl from the University of Edinburgh, not involved in the research, described the study as a meticulously conducted investigation worthy of consideration. The conclusion underscores that climate change has amplified the probability of catastrophic wildfires in Los Angeles. The research further illustrates a pattern of very wet years followed by notably dry ones, which escalate the fire risk by promoting the growth of vegetation that acts as fire fuel during dry seasons and strong winds.