Peru's economy is expected to have grown by approximately 4% in January, according to Adrian Armas, the chief economist of the country's central bank. This aligns with analysts' predictions, revealed a day before the government's scheduled release of the monthly data.
The South American nation has been recovering from a recession that began in 2023 with a 0.4% contraction. The economy expanded by 3.3% last year, and it is projected to close 2025 with a growth rate of around 4%, positioning Peru among the fastest-growing economies in the region.
Armas expressed concern over the uncertain global climate due to the United States' fluctuating tariff pronouncements. He noted, "There is fear about the future of the North American economy." Nonetheless, Armas indicated that the impact on Peru should be limited, especially in comparison to its manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which are expected to be more affected.
In terms of Peru's crucial mining industry, Armas anticipated that any potential effects would be mitigated as copper exporters could redirect their sales to other markets. The U.S. recently announced plans to include copper in its protected trade list, a move aimed at supporting local mining and refining capabilities but with potential repercussions for domestic industry.
Peru's benchmark interest rate remains at 4.75%, a level seen as "neutral territory" by Armas due to inflation indicators remaining within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%. Analysts surveyed by the central bank in the previous month expressed more optimism about inflation, with projections suggesting a year-end rate of 2.28%, down from the 2.37% estimated in January and well within the targeted range.
Armas emphasized that the central bank would make future adjustments to its benchmark rate based on inflation data and its derivatives.