UN planetary defense organizations are closely monitoring an asteroid with a small probability of impacting Earth. The European Space Agency (ESA) states that there is a 99% chance it will pass safely on December 22, 2032, but a potential impact "cannot be entirely ruled out."
The asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, currently holds a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth on the mentioned date. Dr. Robert Massey of the Royal Astronomical Society remains calm, stating, "There is no need for alarm." He emphasizes the importance of providing astronomers with resources to track such threats efficiently.
Although YR4 could cause severe damage if it hit a populated area due to its estimated size of 40m to 90m, it is more likely to land in the ocean or a remote area. Astronomers are working to refine calculations and trajectory of the asteroid, currently rated level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
Typically, asteroids with low impact probabilities tend to veer away after further observations, as seen with Apophis in 2004. Contingency measures are in place for objects larger than 50m with over a 1% chance of impact, including activating asteroid response groups and considering diversion tactics if necessary.
Plans are being discussed by the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) to address any evolving threats from YR4, which could involve deflecting the asteroid with a spacecraft if the probability remains above 1%. Dr. Massey highlights the importance of early detection for successful deflection, as demonstrated with Nasa's Dart mission in 2022.