In Naperville, Illinois, as of February 17th, speculators shifted their positions on Chicago corn and soybeans for the first time in almost two months. Despite this, their optimism towards corn seems more steadfast than towards soybeans.
In the week ending February 11th, money managers decreased their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 332,389 contracts from 364,217 the previous week. Meanwhile, their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options decreased to 28,475 contracts from 57,029, signaling a more significant change in sentiment for soybeans due to their smaller overall position size.
Interestingly, while a notable portion of the week's net selling in soybeans came from new gross short positions, indicating bearish sentiment, there was minimal increase in gross shorts for corn, suggesting that most fund managers are still hesitant to bet against corn.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's reduction of global soybean stocks estimate on February 11th, though still at record highs. Additionally, the agency lowered its forecast for 2024-25 world corn stocks, with expectations for increased corn consumption.
The divergence in sentiment between corn and soybeans was reflected in market activity. CBOT soybean futures dipped to their lowest levels in nearly a month, while CBOT corn rose to a 16-month high.
Market conditions in Argentina and Brazil, with potential yield risks, are being closely watched. Planting progress in Brazil and future corn plantings in the U.S. may impact the global supply situation.
Looking ahead, traders will continue to monitor harvest and planting in Brazil, crop development in Argentina, and U.S. new-crop prices in anticipation of the 2025 planting season.
It is worth noting that U.S. markets were closed on Monday, and Russian wheat export prices have risen for four consecutive weeks due to export quota restrictions.