Introduction
Ukrainian corn is positioned to gain from U.S. tariffs, as it may serve as a substitute for American corn amid potential trade restrictions.Context
On April 3, it was reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% minimum tariff on most imports, with notably higher duties on goods from numerous countries, including China. This move could incite retaliatory measures that may elevate prices and diminish demand for U.S. goods. Ukraine, a significant player in the corn market, could benefit from this scenario.Developments
Analysts from ASAP Agri consultancy highlighted that if major importers enforce tariffs on U.S. corn, it would create substantial opportunities for alternative suppliers. Ukrainian corn stands out due to its competitive pricing, stable logistics, and strong connections with European and Asian markets.- Brazil is positioned as the primary alternative supplier, but its production won't meet all demand, allowing Ukraine to capture a share.
- Barva Invest, another consultancy, views the U.S. primarily as an export competitor rather than a trading partner regarding grains and oilseeds.
- Expected counter-restrictions from the EU, Australia, and China could present strategic openings for Ukraine against U.S. competition.
Barva Invest pointed out that the primary market focus involves corn, soybeans, and wheat, while rapeseed, sunflower oil, and barley are more indirectly impacted.