UniCredit's CEO Andrea Orcel indicated that he may need to wait until 2027 before deciding whether to pursue a takeover of Commerzbank. The recent fiscal surge in Germany has boosted Commerzbank's shares, prompting Orcel to assess the potential value of any deal.
Last year, Orcel entered two significant M&A situations, acquiring up to 30% of Commerzbank through derivatives and bidding for Italian peer Banco BPM. UniCredit recently received approval from the European Central Bank to convert those derivatives into nearly 29.9% of Commerzbank shares. The bank plans to wait until next year before determining whether to pursue a full takeover.
"When we bought, the bank doubled in value, and you go back into the small detail of price," he said at the Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, noting that Commerzbank's stock is benefiting from Germany's spending plans. "We want to understand if there is a reflection of the value with Commerzbank's share price."
Orcel mentioned he could wait until the end of 2027, expressing concern that the lengthy timeline for European banking M&A is making him "less optimistic" about broader dealmaking. He stated that UniCredit now needs to await approvals from German anti-trust authorities and engage with a new German government that opposes a takeover, which is delaying the conversion of the derivatives into Commerzbank shares.
"It is difficult to see how we can be on the other side of things before September or October," he added. Orcel noted it would take at least a year to turn his initial 9% stake in Commerzbank, announced in September, into a 30% holding and about nine months to decide on the bid for BPM. "This is a long time, this is a lot of uncertainty," he remarked.
He also highlighted that UniCredit could increase its investment in its German operations, as the fiscal spending announced in Germany is enhancing the country’s prospects.