Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk have lost ground in recent days, but they are not encircled by Russian forces, contrary to assertions from U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to U.S. and European officials familiar with government intelligence assessments.
U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, have communicated this assessment to the White House over the past week. Despite this, Trump has continued to assert that Ukrainian troops are surrounded.
The intelligence assessments indicate that while Ukrainian troops face intense pressure from Russian forces, they are not completely encircled.
Trump has expressed hope for a swift end to Russia's war in Ukraine. Experts have characterized Putin's claim on March 13 that Ukrainian forces in Kursk were cut off as misinformation aimed at portraying Russia as offering concessions to save Ukrainian soldiers’ lives, thereby enhancing Putin's leverage in ceasefire negotiations.
In comments on March 14, Trump stated he had urged Putin to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainians he claimed were "completely surrounded" and vulnerable. Putin responded that such action would be contingent upon their surrender.
Trump reiterated his claims about "encircled" Ukrainian forces during a speech at the Kennedy Center in Washington and in a Fox News interview.
The U.S. National Security Council did not directly address questions regarding the intelligence assessments but referred to a joint statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. This statement discussed Trump's call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, emphasizing their agreement to continue sharing intelligence on Kursk.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has denied that his forces are surrounded and accused Putin of lying about the situation on the ground. He acknowledged that his military is in a difficult position in Kursk and anticipates continued Russian attacks as they seek to push Ukrainian forces out of the area.
Since August, when Ukrainian forces advanced across Russia's western border in Kursk, Kyiv has lost nearly all the territory it had gained. It once controlled close to 500 square miles of land but currently holds only between 20 and 30 square miles, according to open-source reports.
During a call on Tuesday, Trump and Putin discussed a partial halt to attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days, a commitment that fell short of the complete ceasefire Trump has advocated and that Zelenskiy has indicated Ukraine would be prepared to accept.
Experts suggest that Putin's statements reflect an effort to portray Russian success in the war and undermine Ukrainian resistance. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that both sides are maneuvering for advantageous positions in negotiations.
While Russian forces are reportedly making incremental advances in Kursk, the officials and experts indicated that Putin's claim from March 13 is not accurate. The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based conflict monitor, stated on March 14 that it had observed no geolocated evidence suggesting that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine.