Senior officials in the Trump administration have recently discussed the likelihood that the U.S. will not achieve a Ukraine peace deal in the coming months and are formulating new strategies to apply pressure on both Kyiv and Moscow.
At the beginning of his presidency, Trump and his top advisers aimed to establish a full ceasefire by April or May, with hopes of brokering a lasting peace deal shortly thereafter. However, neither agreement seems imminent, suggesting the conflict may prolong and Ukraine will require additional Western military support.
This scenario is particularly disappointing for Trump, who has styled himself as a dealmaker and has consistently promised a swift resolution to a conflict that has cost countless lives and poses risks of escalating into a direct NATO confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia.
For weeks, senior U.S. officials have privately voiced concerns over Kyiv's approach to negotiations, perceiving a reluctance to cooperate with Washington on advancing peace talks. Recently, frustration has also turned toward Moscow, especially after a series of meetings and calls where officials acknowledged that Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively resisting efforts to reach a lasting peace accord. They deliberated on potential economic or diplomatic measures that might encourage Russia to engage more earnestly in negotiations.
The growing frustration with Moscow, including from Trump himself, reflects a shift in the administration's assessment of Russia's willingness to negotiate. While Trump has claimed to trust Putin, asserting that the Russian leader is committed to peace, recent days have seen a shift in the White House's stance regarding Putin's intentions, even as Trump continues to publicly express belief that Putin desires to end the war.
Specific plans for pressuring Moscow remain unclear, but a senior U.S. official indicated that the White House is considering additional tariffs and sanctions. Trump expressed his anger after Putin criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's credibility, suggesting the U.S. might impose secondary tariffs of 25%-50% on Russian oil buyers.
In a recent meeting with Baltic foreign ministers, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio conveyed that peace in Ukraine is not guaranteed and that the U.S. is still far from securing an agreement. National Security Council spokesperson James Hewitt echoed this sentiment, expressing deep frustration with the Russian government over negotiations and stating that Trump would consider secondary sanctions on Russian oil if there is no serious commitment to peaceful resolution.
The U.S. State Department declined to comment, and both the Russian and Ukrainian embassies in Washington did not respond to inquiries.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Moscow cannot accept U.S. proposals as they currently stand since they do not address the Kremlin’s concerns that led to the war. Additionally, European and American intelligence analysts suggest that Putin is unlikely to negotiate sincerely while believing that Russia is winning on the battlefield.
Following Trump’s inauguration in January, his senior advisers held optimism that years of sanctions and the potential for adjusting economic pressures could bring Moscow closer to an agreement. However, concerns are now being raised about what concessions might be necessary from the U.S. and Europe, especially regarding military operations on the continent.
In recent months, Washington has pressured Kyiv and aligned closer to several of Moscow's foreign policy positions. Nevertheless, Putin's demands, described as "maximalist" by analysts, are unlikely to be accepted by the U.S., Ukraine, or Europe. These demands include reductions in U.S. and NATO military activity in Europe and a prohibition on peacekeepers in Ukraine.
While the White House continues to explore tariffs and sanctions as a means to influence Russia, it appears that such economic measures are unlikely to effect change.
Trump has also expressed renewed frustration with Ukraine, accusing Zelenskiy of attempting to withdraw from a minerals deal. He remarked that if Zelenskiy backs out, it could lead to significant problems for him. Hewitt noted that the president views the minerals agreement as vital for achieving peace in Ukraine.
Additionally, a U.S. official mentioned that the administration is considering amendments to certain parts of the proposed deal to better align with Kyiv's economic interests. U.S. officials have also attempted to broker ceasefires related to energy infrastructure and the Black Sea, although these deals have not yet been implemented.
Despite initially agreeing to an energy ceasefire, both Ukraine and Russia have continued their attacks. Although Kyiv has expressed readiness to negotiate a Black Sea deal, Russian officials have insisted that Moscow first needs restored access to specific trade markets and payment systems.