Should the country's highest judicial authority agree with the lower courts and Congress that the platform poses a national security threat, would this halt Americans from using it? Will methods surface to circumvent the ban, or could President-elect Donald Trump obstruct a law he opposes, even if validated by the courts?
Who stands to gain from the uncertain future of TikTok? The probable path for a US TikTok ban involves instructing app stores like Google Play Store and Apple's App Store to block its download in the region. Lawmakers have advised tech firms to prepare for removing the app if a ban is enacted.
This approach would eliminate a legitimate method to access TikTok, resulting in users retaining the app on their phones without updates, potentially rendering it dysfunctional over time. The absence of updates may expose devices to security risks due to unpatched vulnerabilities.
Nonetheless, there are ways to bypass such restrictions, including using VPNs or altering the app store region settings on devices - though breaching terms of service is a risk. The government plans to prohibit internet hosting services from providing access to the app, anticipating such workarounds.
If implemented, determined users could possibly access TikTok through various means, though with an altered user experience. While uncertainties persist about the ban's specifics, experts agree on the impact it could have on users and the internet's structure.
President Trump seeks to delay the law, yet if upheld by the Supreme Court, he lacks the authority to revoke it upon his return to office. However, he could opt not to enforce it, effectively neutralizing the ban through non-action.
The potential prohibition of TikTok opens doors for competitors like Meta-owned Instagram Reels and Google's YouTube Shorts to attract displaced users and advertisers, as exhibited in India following a similar ban. Advertisers are poised to redirect budgets to these platforms if TikTok becomes inaccessible.
Winners from TikTok's uncertainty may include big tech rivals, Twitch - known for live streams akin to TikTok and Lemon8, another ByteDance-owned app. However, no direct replacement exists for TikTok, notably its e-commerce feature TikTok Shop, which generates revenue for US creators.
While ByteDance has resisted selling its US arm, a ban could prompt reconsideration, especially if Trump, known for deal-making, returns to power. Previous potential buyers include Steven Mnuchin and Frank McCourt, who aim to acquire TikTok. Even MrBeast, a TikTok influencer with a massive following, expressed interest in saving the app.