"MEXICO CITY, Jan 14 (Reuters) - In late November, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump sent shockwaves through global trade by threatening tariffs on Mexico and Canada, effectively tearing up a regional trade agreement if the two countries didn't do more to curb migration and the flow of drugs.
It was a significant test for Mexico's new President Claudia Sheinbaum, the country's first female leader who had taken office just eight weeks earlier. Analysts speculated that the scientist-turned-politician might not match the relative ease of her predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
As Trump gets ready to assume office, Sheinbaum has engaged with the incoming U.S. president and demonstrated tangible results to illustrate Mexico's commitment to cooperating on migration, security, and China.
Whether this will suffice, or if the threat of tariffs on Trump's first day in power is entirely plausible, remains uncertain. Nonetheless, experts and former diplomats acknowledge that Sheinbaum has made a promising start.
"It's a very pragmatic and proactive approach by Sheinbaum and her team," said Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, a global fellow of the Wilson Center's Mexico Institute.
Trump has frequently criticized the Mexican government for not doing enough to prevent migrants and drugs from entering the U.S., pressuring for increased action. He has also voiced opposition to Chinese businesses establishing operations in Mexico.
Following her inauguration, Sheinbaum has heightened efforts against migrants heading towards the U.S. border by detaining an unprecedented number between October and December and has indicated a willingness for Mexico to potentially accept non-Mexicans deported from the United States.
Her administration has also confiscated a large quantity of illicit fentanyl, imposed restrictions on certain Asian goods, and seized counterfeit Chinese products in various Mexican cities.
"She's signaling her strength as a political leader," noted Kloppe-Santamaria, citing recent polls indicating that Sheinbaum has markedly increased her popularity to a significant extent after her initial 100 days in office.
"Without a doubt, Trump wields considerable power and authority, but so does she," Kloppe-Santamaria emphasized.
Seven economic analysts, former Mexican diplomats, and academic experts in Mexican politics interviewed by Reuters largely lauded Sheinbaum's approach in dealing with Trump.
"This demonstrable commitment by Mexico to fully align its interests with those of the U.S. provides us with greater confidence that President Claudia Sheinbaum and President-elect Donald Trump will navigate beyond the initial threats and uncertainties," said Rodolfo Ramos, an analyst at Banco Bradesco.
The incoming U.S. leader is known for his unpredictability, yet Sheinbaum has also retained an element of surprise, according to Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China. While hinting at the possibility of retaliatory tariffs, she has refrained from revealing her strategies.
"She has been astute and strategic," he remarked. "She aims to keep her options open."
Mexico, as indicated by former Mexican ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhan, stands to suffer significantly in a potential second Trump presidency.
The U.S. ranks foremost as Mexico's primary trading partner, and the threatened tariffs by the Republican leader could have widespread ramifications on Mexico's economy. Furthermore, his pledges of mass deportations might strain Mexico's job market and trigger humanitarian and security crises in a nation grappling with violence, internal displacement, and lackluster economic growth.
Add to that Trump's insinuations of unilateral U.S. military intervention against drug cartels within Mexico, a move deemed by Sarukhan as essentially an act of war.
Sarukhan cautioned that U.S.-Mexico relations may grow increasingly volatile in the coming years, with Mexico City needing to brace for potentially tougher times under Trump's second term.
Nevertheless, Sheinbaum appears to possess a well-crafted strategy. The measures undertaken by her government may prove sufficient for the time being.
"I believe these actions establish a baseline for negotiations and deter Trump from implementing tariffs immediately," expressed Matias Gomez, an analyst at the consulting firm Eurasia Group.
"Nonetheless, this threat will persist as a looming risk throughout 2025, enabling Trump to exert pressure on Sheinbaum via various channels."