In Chicago on January 31, Reuters reports that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from various countries, leading to concerns about potential trade retaliation affecting U.S. agricultural exports.
Economists suggest that U.S. consumers may face increased prices across various products like meat, dairy, avocados, and fresh produce due to these tariffs.
China, Canada, and Mexico, the primary markets for American agricultural goods, collectively imported $94 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products in 2023, making the $190 billion U.S. agricultural export sector vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.
During Trump's initial term, retaliatory tariffs caused a significant decline in U.S. agricultural exports, with losses reaching $27 billion, notably impacting sales to China.
To circumvent the threat of tariffs, some Chinese soy buyers rushed to secure U.S. supplies before Trump's inauguration.
Notably, soybeans, corn, wheat, and meat – major U.S. exports – face risks from retaliatory tariffs, resulting in a decrease in exports according to U.S. Census Bureau trade data.
In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China saw a substantial decline, reaching $11.0 billion, while corn exports to major markets like Mexico and Japan increased in value.
Moreover, U.S. wheat exports faced a decline due to competition from cheaper Russian supplies, impacting markets like Mexico, the Philippines, and China.
In the beef industry, the U.S. exported nearly $10 billion in 2023, with growing sales in markets like South Korea, Japan, and China in 2024. Similarly, pork exports saw a rise, especially to nations like Mexico, Japan, and China.
In 2023, the U.S. imported $195.9 billion in agricultural products, with an increase in imports by 9% in the first 11 months of 2024 according to Census data. Notable imports include baked goods, pasta, cereals, and fresh fruits and vegetables.