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Potential Defect in Coalition Building Caused by Harsh Style of Leading German Candidate Merz

After Friedrich Merz's conservative party won Germany's national election, he issued a memorandum to the outgoing Social Democrat government outlining cooperation guidelines for the transition period before assuming power. One directive was that Chancellor Olaf Scholz must not make significant decisions without consulting Merz's team. The media attention led to the headline "Conservatives want to put Scholz on a leash!" in Bild, Germany's top-selling newspaper.

While cooperation between incoming and outgoing governments is typical in consensus-driven Germany, such detailed instructions are uncommon. Merz, a former banker without government experience, is not yet guaranteed to become chancellor. His party will need to form a coalition to secure a parliamentary majority, with the Social Democrats being the most feasible option.

Critics, including members of Merz's own party, raise concerns about his direct style hindering coalition formation and potentially weakening Germany's position on the international stage. Supporters argue that Merz's assertive leadership is vital amid economic challenges and potential security risks. Merz has already engaged in diplomatic meetings, aiming to signal a shift in policies on migration, the economy, and security.

However, his authoritative approach has drawn comparisons to the U.S. political climate, causing unease in a country where consensus-building and restrained executive power are customary. Criticism mounted when a 31-page parliamentary filing questioned the political neutrality of government-funded civil society groups, sparking accusations of authoritarian tendencies within Merz's Christian Democratic Union party.

The SPD has signaled caution towards supporting Merz, with party leaders warning of expectations for a change in approach and tone from the conservative leader. Doubts about Merz's chancellorship suitability are growing within senior SPD and conservative circles, prompting calls for a shift in tone and strategy. Merz's evolving stances on migration and foreign policy have fueled skepticism regarding his consistency and decision-making.

Amid conflicting views on his leadership style and policy proposals, Merz's path to the chancellorship remains uncertain, with ongoing scrutiny from political opponents and within his own party.