Germany faces uncertainty following the CDU/CSU conservative bloc's election without a clear path to forming a government in a politically fragmented landscape.
With the possibility of up to seven parties entering parliament, the conservatives, receiving just under 30% of the vote, will need to forge a coalition. The outcome will hinge on whether the FDP and BSW reach the 5% threshold required to secure parliamentary seats.
Potential coalitions and required compromises are outlined in early projections from ZDF broadcaster:
1. Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU and Social Democrats) - While a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and Olaf Scholz's SPD seems likely, the parties fall short of a majority with 293 combined seats. Final results could make this coalition feasible if the FDP and BSW are excluded from parliament. Disagreements on tax policies pose potential challenges.
- *Probability: 60% according to the Eurasia Group*
2. Kenya Coalition (CDU/CSU, Social Democrats, Greens) - If the FDP and BSW enter parliament, a three-way coalition between CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens, known as Kenya coalition, might be necessary to secure a majority of 374 seats. Ideological differences on domestic policies and migration could complicate this coalition.
- *Probability: 10% according to the Eurasia Group*
3. Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU, Social Democrats, Free Democrats) - A less likely scenario involves a "Germany" coalition comprising CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP, which could secure a slim majority with 326 seats. Historical conflicts between Scholz and FDP might hinder this alliance.
- *Probability: 10% according to the Eurasia Group*
There is also speculation on the potential for a minority government due to the complexity of forming a traditional coalition. Although Merz has hinted at this possibility in the past, the rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD) complicates this scenario as other parties have ruled out cooperating with the far-right party.