In Sao Paulo on February 20, Brazilian prosecutors introduced a condensed case against former President Jair Bolsonaro this week concerning an alleged scheme to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat. This streamlined approach may expedite the legal process and potentially lead to a resolution before the upcoming elections next year.
Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet categorized the 34 individuals implicated in the alleged coup plot into five separate criminal complaints to facilitate the legal proceedings. The case involving Bolsonaro includes seven others.
With the possibility of a televised Supreme Court trial commencing by mid-year and concluding by December, a conviction could hinder Bolsonaro from participating in the presidential race scheduled for October 2026.
While the issue of electoral repercussions has not been publicly addressed by prosecutors, they have emphasized the purported threat to Brazil's democratic system in the last election.
However, expediting a ruling on Bolsonaro's case within the year would require exceptional efficiency from Brazil's Supreme Court, the overseeing authority. Former Supreme Court Justice Marco Aurelio Mello mentioned the necessity for prioritizing due process and defendants' rights.
A decision by a panel of five Supreme Court justices to potentially hear the charges is anticipated as early as April. Some legal experts remain doubtful about reaching a verdict this year.
Raquel Scalcon, a criminal law professor at the FGV law school in Sao Paulo, highlighted the delicate balance the justices face in progressing at an appropriate pace, without compromising impartiality or facing criticism for delays.
Although historical data suggests lengthy proceedings in cases involving high-profile individuals, recent swift judgments reflect the court's capability to act promptly when motivated, stated Ivar Hartmann, a law professor at Insper in Sao Paulo.
Bolsonaro's defense team, refuting allegations of supporting a coup, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. His attorney Celso Vilardi indicated that early indications from the Supreme Court suggest a swift approach to the case.
Facing multiple criminal charges, Bolsonaro is accused of various offenses, such as involvement in a criminal organization and plotting the violent overthrow of democratic institutions, potentially resulting in a cumulative sentence spanning 20 to 30 years.
Apart from the ongoing Supreme Court case, other legal hurdles impede Bolsonaro's political aspirations, including previous electoral court rulings barring him from office until 2030 due to misconduct during his 2022 campaign. Additionally, a potential Supreme Court conviction could constitutionally block Bolsonaro from running for office, a significantly challenging legislative change since Brazil's constitution forbids incarcerated individuals from seeking public office.
Prosecutors are also anticipated to bring forth charges in two separate cases shortly, including allegations of COVID-19 vaccination fraud and undisclosed financial benefits during Bolsonaro's presidency.