LISBON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Portugal's Finance Minister stated on Wednesday that preliminary signals suggest that the country's economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter. This development has bolstered the government's confidence that the expansion in 2025 will outperform that of 2024.
Joaquim Miranda Sarmento referred to the Bank of Portugal's daily composite indicator of activity, along with initial investment and private consumption data.
"The indicators for the fourth quarter revealed a notable economic upturn. While these figures are provisional, they signal a strong fourth quarter and enhance the credibility of our forecast for a 2.1% economic growth in 2025 ... amidst external uncertainties," he informed a parliamentary committee.
He noted that there is "significant international uncertainty stemming from potential geopolitical upheavals, potential trade disputes between major economies, and a challenging economic situation in Germany."
The government anticipates that the gross domestic product expanded by 1.8% in 2024.
Miranda Sarmento expressed optimism that 2025 will be positive, provided there are no substantial shifts in the international landscape.
Additionally, the economic projection supports the government's expectation of achieving another budget surplus this year, estimated at 0.3% of GDP, following a surplus of 0.4% in 2024. The minister mentioned that all international institutions foresee a surplus in Portugal, despite predicting a 0.1% deficit.
The National Statistics Institute is scheduled to publish its flash estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Jan. 30. Portugal's economy expanded by 0.2% from the second quarter to the third quarter, maintaining the same pace as in the preceding three months, and grew by 1.9% year-on-year.