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"Ahead of next week's announcement, BBC Culture's film critics forecast the likely contenders – from a musical about a trans crime boss to an architectural epic with Adrien Brody.

Nicholas Barber: Last year, Christopher Nolan was way ahead of the pack in the race for the best director Oscar. This year, there's no frontrunner just yet. But Brady Corbet constructed a monumental international drama for less than $10m (£8.2m), so he should be nominated for The Brutalist. Jacques Audiard manages to cover all sorts of genres, tones and locations in Emilia Pérez. Jon M Chu may well be honoured for a different type of musical, the bright and shiny Wicked. And Sean Baker deserves a nomination for choreographing the chaos in Anora, a film that is wildly farcical yet always believable. But it would be a shame if we ended up with an all-male shortlist, so let's hope Coralie Fargeat is recognised for overseeing the dayglo style, red-hot performances and jaw-dropping finale of The Substance.

Caryn James: Zoe Saldaña is the frontrunner to win for her dynamic performance as the lawyer who helps Emilia Pérez, and Selena Gomez may well make it into the category as Emilia's duped ex-wife. Ariana Grande is very likely to be nominated for her smooth performance as Galinda in Wicked, a role that only seems easy to play (a lesser actress might have made Galinda unlikable) and so is Isabella Rossellini, who delivers one great speech and has her eyes open all the time as Sister Agnes in Conclave. For the fifth slot, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, and Monica Barbaro, who is vibrant and convincing as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown, are in the mix. But I'd give the edge to Jamie Lee Curtis, a recent winner in this category, who deserves another nomination for her heart-rending performance as a defiantly confident, aging cocktail waitress in The Last Showgirl, and whose SAG nomination is a good omen.

Nicholas Barber: I'd love to see Monica Barbaro being nominated for her role in A Complete Unknown. To hear Timothée Chalamet sing like Bob Dylan is impressive, but to hear Barbaro singing with the operatic vibrato of Joan Baez is something else. In fact, singing is a theme that runs through this category. The multi-talented Zoe Saldaña will be nominated for Emilia Pérez – even though she's really the film's lead actress. Ariana Grande shows off her stratospheric vocals in Wicked, but proves to be a sparkling comedian, too. (But again – isn't she the co-lead rather than one of the supporting cast?) Moving on from singers, Felicity Jones delivers a searing performance as the architect's wife in The Brutalist, and Margaret Qualley glitters with star quality as well as sly wit as the troublesome clone in The Substance.

Nicholas Barber: Four films have such dazzling original screenplays that it would be disappointing if any of them were left off the shortlist: Sean Baker's Anora script bursts with vibrant characters and unforgettable scenes; Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold's The Brutalist has astonishing breadth of research, depth of character and height of ambition; Coralie Fargeat's The Substance has fun with its outrageous concept; and Jesse Eisenberg's sublime A Real Pain doesn't waste a word: every scene is either hilarious, profoundly affecting, or both. It's not so easy to predict which film will fill the fifth slot, but it would be gratifying if the delicacy, grace and warmth of Payal Kapadia's All We Imagine as Light were celebrated here.

Caryn James: This year's nominees in the category could be a masterclass in great, inventive screenwriting. Jesse Eisenberg's deft A Real Pain, Sean Baker's bold Anora and Coralie Fargeat's out-there The Substance should all be included. Those films are all perfectly balanced as they go from comedy or satire to drama. (It's no accident that these writers are also the films' directors.) Director Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold's screenplay for The Brutalist is also sure to make the list. As for the hard-to-predict fifth slot, it would be great to see Mike Leigh's bracing Hard Truths make the cut. And writer-director Payal Kapadia's delicate All We Imagine as Light wasn't submitted by India in the international film category, but has a chance of making up for the omission here.

Nicholas Barber: There is no shortage of contenders for the best adapted screenplay Oscar, ranging from fairly straight adaptations to scripts that take only a couple of threads from their source material, and then weave them into magnificent tapestries. Peter Straughan's Conclave screenplay turns Robert Harris's novel into a streamlined cinematic experience. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes's Nickel Boys script is faithful to Colson Whitehead's novel, but also conjures up something magically distinctive. Emilia Pérez is inspired by Boris Razon's novel, but flies off in its own direction. Sing Sing skilfully opens out a magazine article into an authentic character-based drama. And A Complete Unknown's James Mangold and Jay Cocks use Elijah Wald's book Dylan Goes Electric! as a starting point for an affectionate homage to Bob Dylan's early career.

The 2025 Oscar nominations announcement takes place on Thursday 23 January.

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