In Mexico City on January 31, Mexican billionaire investor Carlos Slim's team and state energy company Pemex are in discussions to make significant changes to a deal to develop the nation's first deepwater natural gas field, as reported by five sources familiar with the matter to Reuters.
Last year, Slim's Mexican holding company, Grupo Carso, partnered with Pemex to develop the Lakach field in the Gulf of Mexico, aiming to revive a project that had been shelved twice by the state company due to high costs.
Following escalating tensions between Mexico and the U.S., including threats of tariffs, deportations, and military actions on cartels by the U.S. President, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has intensified efforts, initiated during her predecessor's tenure in the first Trump presidency, to decrease the country's reliance on gas imports from the United States.
Representatives of Pemex and Grupo Carso have explored various strategies to ensure profitability for Lakach at a lower gas price than initially estimated, according to the sources.
Grupo Carso aims to enhance the potential profitability of the project by incorporating two neighboring fields, Piklis and Kunah, with similar expected resources, as revealed by four sources.
Although the exact impact of adding these two fields on the investment price is not clear, sources believe it would elevate Slim's political influence significantly.
Pemex has yet to comment on the matter, while a spokesperson for Slim declined to provide a statement.
The sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly on the issue, preferred to remain anonymous.
In recent years, Slim has expanded his investments in the energy sector, securing stakes in shallow-water fields such as Zama, Ichalkil, and Pokoch.
Piklis and Kunah, featuring two drilled wells each, were designated as strategic priorities by Sheinbaum's administration last year as part of Pemex's goal to raise overall gas production to 5 billion cubic feet per day, up from approximately 3.7 billion cubic feet per day.
Slim's team has also suggested the alternative of suspending or withdrawing from the project as a negotiation tactic to secure better terms, as reported by three sources.
Initial plans for Lakach envisioned a launch in 2026 and a relatively short production period of eight years, which the sources doubt.
Situated around 90 kilometers (56 miles) from the Gulf port of Veracruz, Lakach is estimated to hold around 900 billion cubic feet of gas.
However, further investment is required, as confirmed by a source reviewing development plans, highlighting production challenges due to low pressure in the existing well.
Pemex has invested $1.4 billion in Lakach so far and has regulatory approval for additional spending.
Fluctuating gas prices have added complexity to the project's profitability, with the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price currently at around $3 per million Btu, down from $6 initially anticipated.
Apart from the political landscape potentially shifting with Trump's return, Mexico has additional motivations to attain energy self-sufficiency given past interruptions in gas supplies from the U.S., notably during a freeze in 2021.
Nevertheless, developing Mexico's own resources poses challenges, including Pemex's preference for a service contract model that limits private sector involvement, as well as infrastructure deficiencies for gas transportation.
Plans to extract gas from Lakach were previously halted in 2016 and again after a former partner withdrew in 2023.