Mexico's annual inflation rate is expected to reach its lowest point in four years in January, according to a Reuters poll released on Thursday. The median forecast from 14 analysts suggests that the annual headline rate is likely to fall to 3.61% in the first month of the year, marking the third consecutive month of declining inflation and reaching its lowest level since early 2021.
The poll also indicates that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise to 3.70% in January, compared to 3.65% in the previous month.
Following its fifth interest rate cut last year in December, Mexico's central bank lowered the key lending rate by 25 basis points to 10.00%, hinting at the possibility of further reductions in the future.
The bank's upcoming rate decision will be announced later on Thursday. An additional Reuters poll of economists suggests a consensus expectation for the future direction.
According to the Reuters poll, monthly inflation in January is expected to increase by 0.31% compared to December, with the monthly core rate projected to rise by 0.45%.
Mexico's official statistics institute INEGI is set to release the consumer price data for January on Friday.