Introduction
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer achieved an unexpected victory in a fiercely contested by-election for the Scottish Parliament on June 6, with Labour capturing the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse seat from the Scottish National Party (SNP).Context
This seat became available following the death of a Scottish government minister. Starmer’s Labour party has faced a decline in support after its significant win in the last British parliamentary elections, attributed to tax increases, welfare benefit cuts, and controversies surrounding donations.Developments
The by-election followed one of the most contentious campaigns in Scotland’s history, marked by accusations of racism. Voters showed strong support for Labour amidst a backdrop of criticism directed at Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader of Pakistani heritage. Davy Russell, the Labour candidate, garnered 31.6% of the votes, while the SNP received 29.4% and the right-wing Reform UK party came in third with 26.1%.Despite betting odds favoring a SNP victory and predicting Labour’s drop to third place behind Reform, Russell’s win was significant. He emphasized that his victory conveyed a rejection of division, stating it sent a message to Nigel Farage and his party. However, Reform UK’s rising popularity, now surpassing Labour in opinion polls, indicates a shifting political landscape a year prior to the next Scottish Parliament elections.
Notably, John Curtice, a leading British pollster, remarked that while Labour’s unexpected win is a positive development, it does not indicate a restoration of their position in the polls. He highlighted Reform UK's growth in Scotland, a region where its low-tax, anti-immigration stance is less traditionally associated, as particularly surprising.
The controversy escalated when Farage visited Scotland shortly after his party released a misleading video claiming Sarwar intended to give priority to the Pakistani community. The Labour party condemned the advert as "blatantly racist," and SNP leader John Swinney called for voters to reject Reform's divisive tactics. Farage retaliated by accusing Sarwar of promoting sectarianism in Scottish politics.