Introduction
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has emerged stronger following a failed referendum on easing citizenship laws, as the leftist opposition struggled to rally significant dissent against her government after nearly three years in power.Context
A coalition of political parties, unions, and civil society groups promoted a five-question referendum aimed at reforming citizenship laws. The proposals included reducing the residency requirement for Italian citizenship by naturalization from ten years to five and enhancing job protection regulations. Despite the 'Yes' vote prevailing, only about 30% of eligible voters participated, falling short of the 50% plus one majority needed for the referendum to be valid, allowing Meloni to disregard the outcome.Developments
Key government ministers had encouraged supporters to boycott the referendum, while the opposition hoped increased voter turnout would generate momentum for political change and challenge Meloni's authority. Antonio Tajani, deputy prime minister and leader of the Forza Italia party, described the situation as a significant defeat for the left that ultimately strengthens Meloni's government.Polls indicate that Meloni remains popular. Recent data from the SWG institute shows her Brothers of Italy party at just above 30%, an increase from the 26% it received in the 2022 national elections, while the main opposition, the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), stands at 23%. Lorenzo Pregliasco from YouTrend commented on the failed mobilization against Meloni's government, noting that the attempt had not succeeded as anticipated.
YouTrend's figures revealed that an average of 12.9 million voters supported the labor-related reforms, slightly more than those who backed the centre-right coalition in 2022. While more than 85% of participants supported stronger worker protections, about a third opposed expediting citizenship procedures, revealing notable divisions among progressive voters.
Antonio Noto, a polling expert, highlighted that some moderate left-wing voters do not align with their parties' stances on immigration, expressing a desire for laws that regulate entry and citizenship more strictly. He pointed out that a segment of right-leaning voters defied calls from their party leaders to boycott the referendum, likely contributing to the "No" vote on citizenship.
Pollsters noted that affluent urban centers like Milan and Turin strongly supported reforms to citizenship rules, while support dwindled in suburban areas, indicating that lower-income voters tend to adopt a more conservative stance on the issue.
The referendum's failure represents a significant setback for groups advocating for migrant integration. Promoters criticized the lack of clarity and overlap with other pressing issues, including the management of migrant flows and illegal arrivals. Anna Lisa Mandorino, head of the civil rights group Cittadinanzattiva, remarked that misinformation surrounding the citizenship issue likely influenced the unfavorable results, contributing to both abstentions and votes against the proposals.