Germany's populist parties are projected to secure enough seats to disrupt parliamentary operations, regardless of their involvement in the forthcoming administration. The far-right Alternative for Germany is currently polling second behind the conservatives, making a possible tie with opposition leader Friedrich Merz unlikely to translate into governing power due to the other parties' refusal to form coalitions with them.
Nevertheless, the AfD might influence parliament through various means. According to German electoral law, a party polling at 20% could secure a significant portion of seats if multiple parties narrowly miss the 5% threshold. Additionally, the left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) could potentially unite with the AfD to impede legislative processes, sharing similar views on Russia, Ukraine, and military expenditures.
The AfD's current minority blocking power in two state parliaments has demonstrated its ability to disrupt government operations. With a one-third voting share, the party could inhibit constitutional amendments, impacting critical issues like Germany's debt brake, military spending, and Russia-Ukraine relations. This deadlock could hinder substantial growth opportunities and economic reforms, jeopardizing governmental stability.
Moreover, the AfD and BSW's potential collaboration could create a formidable parliamentary alliance, increasing the likelihood of initiating inquiries into issues like COVID-19 management, energy policies, and support for Russia or Ukraine. While the BSW has expressed reluctance to cooperate with the AfD, their shared anti-establishment stance and policy alignment suggest a possible collaboration aimed at challenging the mainstream parties' credibility and authority.