On January 20th, Goldman Sachs reported that the copper market is indicating a 50% likelihood of a 10% U.S. tariff on the metal by the end of the first quarter. According to analysts at the U.S. investment bank, this aligns with their subjective estimate of a 50% chance of a 10% effective tariff on copper by the end of the year.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dipped by 0.3% to $9,167 per metric ton by 0706 GMT after hitting a one-month high the previous week.
Following the inauguration, the President-elect is set to deliver a speech, with traders eager to assess the potential policies to be implemented on day one, including proposed tariffs on global imports, particularly on Chinese goods, and a prospective import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products.
Goldman also highlighted that the oil market reflects a nearly 40% probability of a 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian goods, including oil, compared to the bank's 15% subjective chance of a 25% effective tariff by year-end.
Brent crude futures hovered near $80.69 per barrel, while the more active U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude April contract remained stable at $77.36.
The bank attributed a 10% probability to the introduction of a 10% effective tariff on gold within the next 12 months, noting that gold's classification as a financial asset may exempt it from broad tariffs.
Spot gold prices rose by 0.3% to $2,708.77 per ounce, with U.S. gold futures showing minimal change at $2,749.70.
In the past six weeks, the volume of gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses has surged by a third as market participants sought deliveries to guard against potential tariff implications.