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In Berlin on January 31st, Reuters reported that a significant shift in German politics occurred as mainstream parties entertained the idea of cooperating with the far right, potentially complicating the formation of a coalition government post-election. This unprecedented move, led by frontrunner Friedrich Merz, advocating for stricter migration policies with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, has stirred controversy among Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats and the Greens. This development has cast doubts on the prospects of a stable coalition government in Germany's upcoming election on February 23rd.

According to Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer in German studies at King's College London, prolonged and challenging coalition negotiations are expected, which could hinder decision-making in Germany and impact broader European economic stability. The European Union's dependence on a strong Germany in negotiations with the U.S. government adds another layer of complexity, especially amidst threats of trade tariffs by President Donald Trump. Some analysts suggest that prolonged political uncertainty might benefit the AfD, currently in second place in opinion polls, further complicating the political landscape.

Political scientist Philipp Koeker from the University of Hanover anticipates that future coalitions might face disharmony if they fail to address crucial issues like cost of living, potentially paving the way for an AfD victory in the future. The decline of traditional parties and the rise of the AfD have made coalition-building more complicated, as more parties in parliament make forming a majority alliance challenging. Despite the AfD's increasing popularity, mainstream parties are expected to uphold their commitments not to form a coalition with them.

The controversial vote in parliament elicited strong reactions, with Scholz expressing distrust in Merz and leading members of the SPD and Greens openly criticizing his leadership qualities. Merz's shift to the right, particularly on immigration policies, has widened the rift with the Greens and the SPD, who accuse him of breaching agreements made in November. Merz defends his stance on migration as a necessary response to recent violent incidents involving individuals with immigrant backgrounds, though his approach faces criticism and risks bolstering support for the AfD.

Overall, the political climate in Germany remains unpredictable, with shifting poll results reflecting varying public sentiment towards different parties.