Introduction
Brazil's economy may benefit from a new 10% export levy to the United States, according to economists. This development has led to a positive response in local markets.Context
On April 3, local markets reacted favorably to the announcement, with the Brazilian real strengthening past 5.60 per U.S. dollar, marking its highest level since October 2024. The benchmark stock index rose by 0.23%, highlighting investor confidence in Brazil's trade dynamics.Developments
Economists suggest that Brazil's lighter tariff burden could protect the nation from significant trade risks while attracting investments from areas moving away from the United States. XP's research team indicated that while President Trump's tariff policy is "bad in the absolute," it could prove potentially beneficial for Brazil, especially in the context of a trade war that might increase Chinese investments in Brazilian infrastructure and commodities.Iana Ferrao, a partner and economist at BTG Pactual, noted that the imposition of tariffs could benefit certain sectors in Brazil by creating a competitive edge against countries facing higher penalties. Luis Stuhlberger, chief investment officer at Verde Asset Management, pointed out that Brazil's balanced trade relationship with the U.S. has allowed it to "highly benefit" under the global tariff environment. The central question remains whether Brazil can effectively capitalize on this opportunity.
Government officials in Brazil, the world's largest exporter of soy, cotton, beef, and chicken, emphasized that its trade relationship with the U.S. does not harm the U.S. economy. Notably, the U.S. has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil since 2008, reaching $253 million last year amidst over $80 billion in bilateral trade.