In Quito on January 30, according to multiple polls, Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa appears poised to secure a full four-year term in the upcoming February 9 election, most likely facing a runoff against leftist Luisa Gonzalez.
A potential runoff between Noboa and Gonzalez would echo the past, with Gonzalez initially leading in the first round but ultimately losing to Noboa, a scion of a business family.
Noboa, aged 37, is projected to secure 47.1% of valid votes, excluding blank or void votes, while Gonzalez is anticipated to garner 39.5%, as per a survey by Comunicaliza on January 25 involving 5,217 respondents and a margin of error of 1.36%.
For a first-round victory, a candidate needs to obtain over 50% of valid votes or secure at least 40% while leading by 10 points over their closest competitor.
An Ipsos poll indicates Noboa potentially clinching a first-round victory with 50% of valid votes against Gonzalez's 34.6%, from a survey of 2,000 respondents, with a margin of error of 2.2%, conducted from January 20-24.
Claiming a lead in first place, a Negocios & Estrategias poll places Gonzalez at 45% of valid votes versus Noboa's 40%, necessitating a second round. This survey involved 2,000 participants from January 23-25, with a margin of error of 2.2%.
Noting the unreliability of opinion polls in Ecuador, Tellimer Insights cautioned against complacency among investors despite a likelihood of a Noboa victory. They consider a Noboa lead in the first round their base scenario, albeit without a secured margin to avoid a runoff.