Introduction
A recent poll reveals that a majority of Brazilians disapprove of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's performance amid rising inflation concerns as the country approaches next year's elections.Context
This growing dissatisfaction is evident even in Lula's traditional stronghold in the northeast, presenting challenges for his potential reelection bid. The Quaest poll, commissioned by brokerage Genial, indicates that only 41% of respondents approve of Lula's administration, a decline from 47% in January. Meanwhile, disapproval has surged to 56%, up from 49% earlier this year. This reflects Lula's highest disapproval rating during his three non-consecutive presidential terms.Developments
Lula's main political rival, former President Jair Bolsonaro, had been a significant obstacle to his reelection hopes but is now facing legal troubles related to alleged conspiracy against the government following his loss in the 2022 election. Despite this shift, Lula's support had already begun to dwindle in previous polls when his disapproval ratings surpassed his approval for the first time since he resumed office in January 2023.Various measures introduced by the government aimed at boosting Lula's popularity, such as exempting Brazilians earning 5,000 reais (approximately $880) or less per month from income tax and pricing interventions to tackle food inflation, have not yielded immediate positive results. According to Quaest's director Felipe Nunes, "The government's inability to reverse the disapproval situation is also the result of a worsening perception of the economy."
The perception of increased fuel prices at gas stations has further contributed to the belief that the purchasing power of Brazilians has diminished compared to a year ago. Brazil's inflation rate reached a two-year high of 5.26% in early March, significantly exceeding the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 4.5% as policymakers tighten monetary policy.