In 2024, Argentina is projected to have achieved its largest trade surplus in history, as per a Reuters analyst poll released on Friday. This success is attributed to President Javier Milei's efforts to increase grain and energy exports during his first full year in office.
Milei, who took office in December 2023, committed to utilizing the extensive shale reserves in the Patagonian Vaca Muerta region. Additionally, grain exports saw a boost due to some relaxation of currency controls and favorable weather conditions.
Argentina holds the title of the world's leading exporter of processed soy oil and meal, the third-largest exporter of corn, and is significant in wheat and beef production. The country also boasts substantial lithium reserves necessary for electric batteries, along with shale gas and oil deposits.
Reuters analysts predict a year-end trade surplus ranging between $18 billion and $19 billion, exceeding the previous record of $16.89 billion set in 2009. The monthly data for December, to be released by the national statistics agency on Monday, is estimated to show a surplus of $921 million, according to the Reuters poll's median.
Official data indicates that from January to November, Argentina secured a trade surplus of $17.20 billion, a turnaround from the $7.94 billion trade deficit reported during the same period in 2023.
Under Milei's austerity-driven economic agenda, Argentina's inflation rate is anticipated to conclude the year at 117.8%, down from nearly 300% in April.
Analysts foresee a decrease in Argentina's trade surplus going forward. Economist Federico Gonzalez from Empiria Consultores expects a significant rise in imports which have already begun to increase, partly due to the devaluation of the Argentine peso compared to currencies like the Brazilian real, and the reduction of certain taxes by the Milei government.
Recent government announcements include plans to levy taxes on imports to decrease prices of items such as household appliances.
Economist Milagros Suardi from Eco Go predicts that in 2025, the trade balance could shrink to just 40% of the 2024 surplus, driven by an uptick in imports alongside economic recovery and a more favorable exchange rate.