According to a Reuters poll on Thursday, it is anticipated that Arabica coffee futures will decrease by approximately 30% by the end of 2025. The current high prices are expected to diminish demand, while early indications suggest a substantial Brazilian crop next year.
The median forecast from 12 traders and analysts in the poll predicts arabica prices at $2.95 per pound by the close of 2025—a 30% drop from Wednesday and a 6% decrease from the end of 2024. One participant mentioned, "Demand will stagnate in response to very high prices."
The surge in prices has been driven by expectations of a reduced arabica crop from top producer Brazil in the upcoming 2025/26 season. The median forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop is 40.55 million bags, down from the previous season's 43.4 million. Yet, some participants note the potential for a larger crop in the 2026/27 season.
Regarding arabica coffee prices, which excelled in commodity markets in 2024, rising by about 70%, they have continued climbing in 2025, hitting a record high of $4.2995 on February 11. Brazil's total crop is expected to decrease to 64.6 million bags from 66.4 million in 2024/25, with robusta production partially offsetting the decline in arabica output.
Robusta coffee prices are projected to reach $4,200 a metric ton by the end of 2025, indicating a 28% decrease from Wednesday and a 14% annual loss. Brazil's robusta crop is forecasted to increase in 2025/26 to 24.5 million bags from 21 million the prior season. Additionally, Vietnam, the top producer of robusta, is expected to harvest 29 million bags in 2025/26, up from 28 million in 2024/25. "If weather conditions remain favorable, we expect production to recover given the investments made by farmers in recent years," noted one of the participants.